The 2017 French Presidential Elections by Jocelyn Evans & Gilles Ivaldi

Author:Jocelyn Evans & Gilles Ivaldi
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Cham

2.2 Presidential Polls

Across the two rounds of voting in the presidentials, polling performed very well, although two types of doubt were cast on the two rounds. At a basic forecast level, both first and second rounds were beyond reproach. First-round polling predicted the order of the first two candidates, who would proceed to the run-off ballot. They also estimated the two runners-up in the correct order, and very close to their actual scores.

There are two key ‘shocks’ in the election that polling picked up. First, François Bayrou’s announcement on 22 February that he would be endorsing Emmanuel Macron, rather than François Fillon, or indeed running as a Modem candidate himself, resulted in a substantial increase in support for the eventual president. As Fig. 6.3 shows, increase in support for Macron slightly predated this announcement, but it is clear that the ascent to beyond 25 per cent was conditional upon the Modem leader’s backing. Second, in the entre deux tours period, Marine Le Pen’s poor performance in the televised debate on 3 May with Macron resulted, as we discussed in the previous chapter, in a late slump in the polls. Some criticized the polls for underestimating Macron’s eventual winning margin. Or, put in a more sensationalist though mathematically identical way, the polls had overestimated Marine Le Pen’s support (see Fig. 6.4).

Fig. 6.3Vote intention polling for the presidential first round. Source: Authors’ collation of vote intention polls, https://​fr.​wikipedia.​org/​wiki/​Liste_​de_​sondages_​sur_​l’élection_​présidentielle_​française_​de_​2017, polling institute archives, polling institute archives

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